According to Taiwan media reports, the time limit for the ban on incandescent lamps in countries around the world is gradually approaching. After the European Union stopped selling 60 watts of traditional incandescent lamps in 2009, Australia began to ban the use of traditional incandescent lamps in 2010. Canada and Japan are also expected to be in 2012. In the year of sales stoppage and manufacture of incandescent lamps, the United States will also phase out incandescent lamps in 2012-2014 and replace them with energy-saving bulbs. As the LED backlight penetration rate of large-size LCD products is also accelerating, the research unit estimates that if the LED lighting penetration rate is expected to reach 10% in 2011, the supply and demand of global LED chips will likely be under 2011. Half a year, it has become tighter.
Mainly because of the LED backlight in the large-size LCD products (including LCD TVs, LCD monitors, notebook computers, etc.), the backlight penetration rate is also accelerating, and the demand for LEDs continues to increase. At the same time, not all LED dies produced can be used in the LED lighting market. Only high-quality, high-brightness LED dies can meet the requirements.
1e7a; At present, Taiwan's LED chip manufacturers have invested in lighting applications, including Jingdian (2448), Yuyuan (3061), Taigu (3339), New Century (3383), etc., LED lighting applications accounted for revenue Both have reached 20%-30%. Recently, the industry has launched a number of horizontal or vertical strategic cooperation (such as Jingdian's cooperation with Japan's Toyota Synthetic and China Electronics Group, Yuyuan and Japan's Mitsui cooperation, etc.), mainly in the layout of the upcoming LED lighting business opportunities. .
According to the Yongfeng Gold Control Research Office, the penetration rate of global LCD TV LCD TV backlights will reach 45% in 2011, LCD Monitor LCD LED backlights will reach 60%, NB notebook LEDs The backlight penetration will reach 100%. Based on this estimation, the number of LED backlights used in the world's three major display applications in 2011 will reach 52%, 152%, and 13%, respectively.
In addition, other applications such as mobile phone backlights, digital billboards, and vehicle-to-LED demand will also maintain a small increase in 2011 (from a single-digit percentage range to 20%), if LED lighting application penetration rate Also reaching 10% in 2011, the global LED demand may grow from more than 140 billion in 2010 to more than 210 billion in 2011, and the annual growth rate is estimated to be over 50%.
As for the total number of MOCVD machines in the world, there were about 1,400 units installed in 2010, of which about 350 were introduced in 2010. It is estimated that there will be 700 MOCVD machines in the world in 2011, which will be imported. (The main expansion area is from mainland China), making the total number of MOCVD machines in the world more than 2,100.
With the increase in the installation of MOCVFD machines, the global supply of LED chips will increase from more than 140 billion in 2010 to more than 250 billion in 2011, with an annual growth rate of 70%. However, since not all LED dies can be used in LED lighting products, Yongfeng Gold Control Research believes that the 2011 LED (die) supply-demand ratio is still 116%, and it is expected that global LED supply and demand in the second half of 2011 may be Will turn tighter.
According to the survey, the current price difference between LED bulbs and power-saving bulbs has been more than 10 times that of 2008, and has converge significantly to 5-8 times in 2010. The average unit price of LED lighting products per lumen (brightness) has also been In 2009, the cool white light was $25 and the warm white light was $36, which fell to $13 for cool white light and $25 for warm white light in 2010. It is expected that by 2012, the average price of LED lighting will continue to drop to 6 US dollars per ton, and warm white light will also reach 11 US dollars. As the luminous efficiency increases and the unit cost continues to decrease, it is assumed that the LED lighting penetration rate in 2011 is as expected by 10%.
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