Editor's note: Kevin Kelly, often referred to as "KK", was the first editor of "Wired Magazine"; he was the editor and publisher of the Whole Earth Review. In 1984, Kevin Kelly launched the first Hackers Conference. Kevin Kelly’s articles often appear in heavyweight media and magazines such as The New York Times, The Economist, The Times, and Science. He is also seen as a statement of “Cybercultureâ€. People and observers.
September 10, 2016 in Chongqing, Kevin Kelly published a report entitled "inevitable (The Inevitable)" speech, in his speech he referred to the artificial intelligence once again the rage of three elements: neural networks, GPUs and big data, and The concept of artificial intelligence differs from human thinking, and the expectations for the future development of artificial intelligence. The following is the content of the speech.
Kevin Kelly : I am very happy to be in China again. Everyone knows that in the past 20 years, the changes that have taken place in China have been greater than those that happened in the past 100 years. This is the result of industrialization. I believe every entrepreneur and entrepreneur who is present here will witness greater changes in the next 20 years.
Most technologies are difficult to predict, but I think some of the technology is predictable . I can share with you some personal thoughts about which technology changes in the next 20 to 30 years. All of the technology actually shifts in one direction because it is something specific, like some wires, some corresponding chips, some radio waves, etc. It is repeated and repeated. If we look at these points we can see where they are headed and where the big trend is.
Sometimes we can say that some details of a thing are unpredictable, but the big direction is predictable. In a Grand Canyon, the general direction of the rain is downward. This trend can be predicted, but it is unpredictable which path to take. Therefore, I make a metaphor that the future trend of these computer technologies is predictable, but in the end it is Baidu, Apple, or which startup company will succeed. This specific cannot be predicted. In terms of science and technology, we must take a long-term perspective on what kind of general direction we will have in the next 25 years. We can't foresee Apple's mobile phone. You don't know when it will be. You may know that there will be a phone call in the future, but you don't know that there will be an iPhone in the future. Similarly, once we have a network, we have no way of predicting the birth of Twitter or WeChat.
These trends support each other like an intertwined river bed. I would like to talk about two major trends that I think are the most important. These technological trends will have a certain degree of dominance. They will become changers in the social structure. This is like the changes brought about by the Industrial Revolution in the past 100 or 20 years. same. These techniques I'm going to talk about you all actually heard about - artificial intelligence, but I want to tell you why these technologies are so important and what the overall direction of the future is. When you are doing inventions, you can have a general understanding of what the future direction is. We already have artificial intelligence, but many times we can't see how it works in the background. It can collect evidence better than human lawyers, or can fly me to bring me here. I came to China from San Francisco for 13 hours. It is possible that human drivers only operate 8 minutes. All other times are Artificial intelligence to fly the aircraft. It may also be in your car's brakes, a small artificial intelligence chip, will know when to stop and brake better than humans. These have already happened.
Why are we still talking about artificial intelligence?
Here we must mention three major scientific and technological innovations. After these three major scientific and technological innovations are combined, they have made great breakthroughs and brought about rapid progress. The three innovations are: neural networks , GPUs, and big data.
The first neural network can simulate the behavior of the brain (already 50 years old). Some Canadian scientists have stacked them up, hoping to do large-scale computing. In fact, there was such an innovation since 10 years ago, and now we call it deep learning .
The second big innovation is that artificial intelligence was run on supercomputers (millions of computers) because only these computers can perform parallel computing. At the same time, players in the game industry have discovered that they can use small chip GPUs (image processing units) to do artificial intelligence calculations. This is what Baidu and Google are currently doing.
The third innovation is big data . There are many examples to illustrate: a large amount of data may be collected in orders of magnitude of more than a million. Only big companies such as Baidu, Alibaba, and Google, Microsoft, have big data.
After these companies have their data, plus neuron networks and GPUs, these three factors add up. We have seen great breakthroughs in artificial intelligence in the past decade. For example, Alpha Dog broke the world championship and used it. Artificial intelligence. Now that artificial intelligence such as Google and Baidu can be photographed, you can identify what the image is, understand it, know what it is in it, and then describe it in Chinese and English.
Google also teaches how artificial intelligence plays games. If you played video games before playing against computers, now that AI can learn how to play video games on its own, this kind of artificial intelligence is very important.
Actually, instead of artificial intelligence, I think it should be artificial intelligence. This kind of artificial intelligence is not the same as people. Your computer is smarter than you and counts more than you. This is already a fact. The navigation system of the big family in the car, GPS, also knows how to find a way better than you. Baidu has other search engines that are smarter than people. So we now see that our technology is smarter than people, but they are only smarter than people in narrow areas. Why do we want to do this? We want them to be smarter than us in only a small area.
For example, we want artificial intelligence to learn to drive our cars. For example, nowadays, Google cars are different from humans in their driving styles. They are not human-like. We give them design projects and they will not be distracted. Their only focus on one thing is to look at the road. So our understanding of intelligence is wrong, we think it is a direction, for example, from a mouse's intelligence to the monkey's intelligence, and then to a stupid IQ to a talented IQ, everyone thinks this is from the stupid To smart specifications. But this is not the case. We have different aspects. Some of them are smarter than others, but all of us have reasoning and calculus in our brains, as well as emotional intelligence and IQ. All of these things are mixed together to form different people. - Very complicated. But they all make up our minds, so all of them are different. Animals are the same. Animals have a mixture of various elements. Sometimes these animals are smarter than us. For example, squirrels have longer memories than humans. He remembers where nuts are, but these IQs are better than humans. IQ is smaller. When we do machines and artificial intelligence, we have to do engineering design for them, make these intelligence changes more obvious, make some aspects of computer machines better than people, but some aspects are worse than people, but you can't make a machine All aspects are better than people.
Every artificial intelligence is different and different from human thinking
Even if some aspects are stronger than humans, it has no way to think like people. So there are different minds. We will create hundreds of new species. They have different ways of thinking. We will do this because we want different results. This is an engineering problem. The benefits of artificial intelligence are not to say that it is smarter than people, but that they are not the same as people's way of thinking. I want to emphasize this point. Their thinking and way of thinking are different . We feel that our own intelligence is only one of many types of thinking and is a very specific way of thinking. When we invented artificial intelligence, we will find that human intelligence is only a very small way of thinking. The focus of artificial intelligence is because the way they think is different. Different ways of thinking will bring different results and give you different ideas. Even when we are connected and linked together, we can have different ways of thinking. The challenge now is that when all people are connected, how can you think differently? Artificial intelligence can help us. We don't work with AI because it's smarter than us, mainly because he has different ways of thinking.
The second is that it will bring another industrial revolution.
I mentioned that the great change in China is due to the first industrial revolution. For example, a building that is beautiful now is because of the result of material innovation and the result of material innovation. This is our human strength. Before farming in 70% of Chinese people in the agricultural society, we had to use human or animal power to do things. We used animal power to build roads, and then we built buildings using the strength of human bodies. You can only do it with your own strength. chair. But when we have the power of manpower, and after we have electrics and steam engines, we can turn on a switch. For example, if you drive 250 hp, you have a power. This is an artificial force. We can build tall buildings, build railways, build cities, or build factories to produce many chairs because we have artificial power. We use the power to make use of it in the power grid. We can send electricity to the countryside. So every farm and every family they have such an artificial force. They don't need to create their own artificial power, they can buy it themselves, think How much to buy and how much to buy, this has become a new industrialized commodity. You can buy electricity on your own, and electricity does what you want to do. For example, the farmer has a manual pump. Later I discovered that I am an entrepreneur now. I want to innovate. I can use artificial force to pump and add some labor. Power, using the resources of the power grid, finally had an electric motor.
Nowadays these motors will add artificial intelligence. At this time we have smart motors. This is our future plan. Originally these electrified electric motors, and then artificial intelligence became intelligent motors, so that we could rise geometrically and produce a new generation of industrial revolution. Its size and resulting geometric progression effect is much higher than the previous industrial revolution. Now that we are a self-driving car, we have to add 250 people working smart chips to our car. This time we can better help humans to automate the car. This is the role of artificial intelligence, and it has also opened up unlimited. may.
It is also worth emphasizing that, as artificial intelligence, we are similar to what we used to provide in the past. We used to buy electricity from the national grid and pay for electricity. This artificial intelligence can also be used like electricity in the future. To spend money on purchases , you don't have to do artificial intelligence yourself. You just spend money on the artificial intelligence you need. So now, tens of thousands of startups can take something and add artificial intelligence. Just like 100 years ago and 30 years ago, we took things and added electricity and automation. Now, too, take things in and add them to artificial intelligence, so that artificial intelligence can be fully transformed into a fashion. In the past, real estate, chemistry, and all our industries can be added to artificial intelligence. Here I give an example: we can see Google's artificial intelligence, you can ask questions about such a photo, what color is the ball in the end, what color is this tennis player's skirt, and these intelligences are It's 100 questions that you can buy. You can buy it for as long as it takes 60 cents. This is today's price. It's true that you can buy artificial intelligence directly from the cloud and spend money on it. So we can put artificial intelligence in the body and it becomes a robot.
Another point is to consider some privacy issues. Everyone, including myself, wants me to be personalized to me. My company and government all want their personalized care. At this time, I can have more information. Share with them and open them up. I hope my company will give me personalized service. I would also like to share my personal information and let the company understand me better. Therefore, personalization requires great transparency. Of course, not everyone wants the greatest degree of transparency and personalization. Therefore, people want to be able to choose which aspects of privacy as not to be disclosed, and in part because of the need to maintain privacy. Need to be personalized. As a universal thing, this scale can be adjusted in this way. This time according to your needs, your privacy, including transparency, degree of personalization in the end, you can adjust their own. Many people want more personalization and more transparency. The results of this survey made us feel very surprised that showing off has the upper hand and privacy is on the contrary.
Many times talking about what might happen in the future, you may find it hard to believe if we send you back through the time tunnel back to 20 years ago and tell them what we have today, including what modern things in your pocket are, and what you have in your pocket. , you include detailed maps of the entire country, some real-time information, and the latest of these technologies, including encyclopedias, turned out to be free, you can pass photos over the air, all these things tell people 20 years ago they will It is hard to believe that what happened today is true. The computer used to be large, but it is getting smaller and smaller. It can also be placed in shoes, placed in clothes, placed on doors, placed on chairs, and at that time they may feel like a joke. Why? Inside the door, this cannot happen. Each hotel will have a microcomputer on the door to make it more secure, which is very powerful. Putting such a small microcomputer on the door is really powerful. It was unimaginable 20 years ago. So we think that in the next 20 years as well, we must believe that things that we can hardly believe today will happen. We must open our hearts and these impossible things will happen. why? Because we are now cooperating, and the speed and scale of this cooperation are unprecedented, we think about Facebook has about 1.6 billion users in the world, so there are so many people on the news, photos, This is really amazing. The scale of what we are doing is really unimaginable in the past. We can now launch 100 people to allow him to come up with crowdfunding to develop a product. This can now be realized. It can not be realized long ago and it can be achieved on a very large scale. Cooperation may produce infinite possibilities. Just as in the past it was thought that encyclopaedias that could be read at any time were unthinkable, but today is indeed something that everyone can reach. This is our future.
We are now in the early stages of the next 20 years of change. This is the best era in history. It is the best time for us to create and innovate. We have the best tools. The current tools can allow any individual, any country, any organization to make any invention, and create inventions in history and in the best times in the world. Can do some things for the future, I believe that we are talking about artificial intelligence is in the early stages of development, it can produce endless energy, and continue to push forward the era. We have these tools, we have the best times, we have so many opportunities, and we are now at the beginning of this era. By the way, I said that there is no real expert in AI, there are many people who are full of wisdom, and there are many wealth, then I think these rich people with great wealth are not known 20 years ago, and they will have these wealth and professional in the future. Experts in technology and knowledge are among everyone. We can think about it. In the next 20 or 25 years, can we imagine what people will say after sending people through space-time machines for 25 years? I hope that by the time I am still young and can continue to work, it may be at this time that artificial intelligence can play a role, that is, everyone wants to remain young and still full of energy in the future. The greatest product in the next 20 years is not yet available, so today is Day 1.
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