With the consumption upgrade and the ultra-high-definition of smart TVs, the demand for large-size panels in the world has been booming in recent years. The industry predicts that in 2017, the global large-size panel shipment area will grow by approximately 3.8% annually. At the same time, as South Korea's Samsung will shut down its 7.5-generation line and its LGD part of its production line capacity will be converted to OLED, coupled with the recent Sharp panel supply strategy adjustments, resulting in 2017 global large-size panel production capacity.
In the first half of the first quarter, the off-season is not faded
Since the second half of 2016, the global large-size panel market has continued to show a tight supply and demand situation. According to a recent study released recently by the WitView Research Center (WitsView), the panel's supply and demand in the first half of 2017 are expected to be adjusted and corrected due to the off-season. However, Sharp recently turned to the world’s largest group under the brand strategy. TV panel maker Samsung Electronics’ panel supply stepped on an emergency brake, causing a gap in panel supply. If Samsung Electronics maintains a certain amount of panel purchases in the first quarter of 2017, it may trigger other brands to follow suit in order to ensure panel supply and will unexpectedly support it. Demand in the off-season caused the supply and demand situation of the panel in the first quarter of 2017 to be tighter than expected.
Observe that in the second quarter of 2017, panel demand should have been corrected under the impact of the traditional off-season and inventory accumulation. However, the upcoming traditional peak season preparation pressure may make the buyer not inclined to significantly revise the volume of panel purchases, and the atmosphere on the market will also be observed. Reflected in the panel quote, resulting in panel price correction has become limited. Overall, WitsView estimates that the demand for large-size panels in the first half of 2017 will generally be in the off-season.
Looking into the second half of 2017, there will be two major variables in the large-size panel market in the third quarter. First of all, once the correction of the panel price in the first half of the year is limited, it means that the brand manufacturers continue to be squeezed in addition to the profit space, it also impacts the promotional chips that the brand has on hand. Second, since 70% of new panel production capacity in 2017 will be released in the second half of the year, it will be another negative factor affecting supply and demand. WitsView said that both of these variables will be transformed into pressure from the panel market, making it possible for the third quarter of 2017, whether panel supply or demand or panel pricing, may deviate from the peak season.
Another professional research institute, IHS Markit, pointed out that even if panel makers such as BOE, Innolux, and China Star Optoelectronics will invest in new capacity in 2017, LCD TV panel makers will continue to be cautious in formulating their 2017 production as a whole. Planning and business strategy.
Panel prices bottom out, TV manufacturers are under pressure
For panel suppliers, due to the continuous rise in raw materials, bulk materials, and labor costs in recent years, circuit boards, plastic silicones, etc. have risen by more than 10%, causing companies to increase their production costs; especially when panel suppliers adjust production lines, Samsung will shut down The G7 production line with a global large-size panel production capacity of 4% led to a tight supply and demand of the panel and a retaliatory rebound of panel prices of 40%.
According to the prospective database data, in November 2016, 40-inch LCD TV panels were quoted at US$140 per piece, and 43-inch panel prices were US$148 per tablet, both at US$10. Even the price of the 32-inch LCD panel, which was the most serious oversupply condition, has reached US$76.
According to the December 2016 panel market data released by IHS, TV panel prices have continued to increase in the past 8 months. Especially in the last four months, prices have been surprisingly violent. In December, just after the end of the year, prices continued to grow, but compared with the previous months, there was a lot of rationality. The growth rate was only 2%-4%, an average increase of only 3-5 US dollars.
Faced with the pressure of rising prices of upstream panels, downstream terminal TV manufacturers will bear higher costs, and some Internet TV manufacturers have been forced to increase prices. In November 2016, LeTV announced that its products would be subject to price increases, with some products being increased by RMB 100 and some raised by RMB 300 due to the increase in panel prices. After LeTV announced a price increase, Xiaomi TV also announced price increases on some models.
At present, the proportion of retail sales of domestic Internet TV brands in the market has increased to 16%, and the number is nearly 20, but these brands generally adopt the model of OEM. When the prices of upstream raw materials change, the downstream costs will increase, and the subsidies will increase. Under limited circumstances, the pressure on corporate funding can be imagined. It is expected that the price of LCD panels will continue to rise in the future, which is a big challenge for major TV manufacturers. The domestic TV industry may usher in a new round of reshuffling.
Market share of Chinese mainland panel makers steadily increases
Since 2005, the Chinese government has actively promoted the construction of the panel industry and ensured the industrial layout of panel companies from the perspective of policies and funds. The “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for National Strategic Emerging Industries†recently released by the State Council also re-emphasized that “the realization of active matrix organic light-emitting diodes (AMOLED), ultra-high-definition (4K/8k) quantum dot liquid crystal displays, flexible displays, etc. Breakthroughs and scale applications."
According to statistics, in 2016, global shipments of LCD TV panels reached 258 million units, and the shipment area reached 130 million square meters. From the perspective of global panel market share, China's mainland panel maker shipments accounted for 30% of the world's total, only Second to South Korea ranked second in the world, for the first time surpassing 25.5% market share in Taiwan. Judging from the performance of shipments of panel makers in various countries, the panel manufacturers in mainland China have continued to expand due to high generation line capacity, disrupting the ranking of global LCD TV panel shipments.
In 2016, Korea's Lucky Gold Display and Samsung Display still occupy the world's first and second place. The production capacity of BOE and Huaxing Optoelectronics continued to expand in mainland China, driving LCD TV panel shipments to increase by 2 digits annually, and the market share has increased significantly. Among them, the BOE 2016 LCD TV panel shipments reached 40 million units, the market share increased significantly to 15.4%, ranking fourth, with weak differences second only to Taiwan Innotec; China Star Optoelectronics also benefited from the expansion of the t2 production line The market share exceeds Taiwan's AUO and it is the fifth largest in the world.
In 2016, BOE, China Star Optoelectronics, and China Panda's Panda panel makers achieved 76.73 million LCD TV panel shipments. The total market share reached 30%. Shipments exceeded the Taiwan region, ranking second only to South Korea.
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