"Overcapacity" makes polysilicon enterprises lose 100 billion market

Recently, several polysilicon enterprises in China jointly reported to reporters that at the end of September 2009, the State Council issued the “Opinions of the State Council on Transferring Development and Reform Commissions and Other Departments on Suppressing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Repeated Construction and Guiding the Healthy Development of Industries” (hereinafter referred to as “No. 38”). The development of the polysilicon industry was hampered by policies. According to calculations, the industry suffered a market loss of more than 100 billion yuan.

“Since the publication of 'No. 38 Document', the restrictions imposed by polysilicon have formed a chain reaction.” On May 31, Wu Dacheng, deputy director of the Photovoltaic Committee of the Chinese Renewable Energy Society, said in an interview. “After the article was published, domestic banks and approving agencies were all overwhelmed with regards to polysilicon projects. All new projects were basically halted; those that had not been submitted for approval were no longer submitted for approval; those that had not approved investment were also no longer investing; Those who did not put into production did not dare to start production again.” On June 1, Zhang Yang (a pseudonym), a person in charge of polysilicon production, told reporters. "According to rough estimates, only one year in 2011, Chinese companies will reduce their output value by 65 billion yuan and lose profits by 40 billion yuan in the 'No. 38 document', and the profit given to foreign manufacturers in vain will exceed 4 billion US dollars." Say. "If there are still no new projects approved this year, then the supply gap for polysilicon in the country in the next two years will exceed 60%." On June 1, an executive from a polysilicon company in Henan pointed out.

He believes that the government should give support to companies in photovoltaic and polysilicon technology research and development, not only to provide financial support, but also to provide a relaxed environment, allowing the development and testing of new technologies, "to allow mistakes." “Only in this way will there be a group of companies that stand out on the basis of being bigger and become leading companies in the technology industry. This is the magic weapon that our enterprises can have in sustaining competitiveness, making foreign major competitors frightened by Chinese companies. ."He said.

International companies took away the Chinese market "China's polysilicon companies and investors are looking at a good market, guarding the vacant factory buildings and unboxed equipment would cry, and foreign polysilicon powerhouses would earn pours." said Zhang Yang .

Zhang Yang broke the news to this reporter, saying that just before the announcement of “No.38 Document”, foreign polysilicon manufacturers suddenly increased their sales efforts to the Chinese market, including direct sales, the establishment of distribution networks, etc., and marketing tools emerged in an endless stream, and they were “not bad”. .

According to statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in 2009, China imported 21,000 tons of polysilicon, which accounted for 55% of the total domestic demand; and by 2010, the number of imported polysilicon has soared, and its monthly growth rate has basically exceeded 100% year-on-year. As of October 2010, the number of imported polysilicon for customs declaration in China has exceeded 30,000 tons, and it is expected that the annual import volume will exceed 40,000 tons. The price of polysilicon also jumped from US$55 to US$95 per kilogram. "China's polysilicon companies and investors are looking at a good market, guarding vacant factories and unboxed equipment to cry and tears, while foreign polysilicon powerhouses are earning a lot." Zhang Yang said.

In 2009, according to the average import price of US$55 per kilogram of polysilicon, the cost of foreign manufacturers was calculated at US$35, and international manufacturers earned a net profit of US$420 million from China.

The Chinese company’s polysilicon cost is calculated at RMB 350,000 per ton. The RMB sales price is RMB 500,000. The domestic manufacturers have lost RMB 3.15 billion in profits, and the domestic polysilicon has lost 10.1 billion yuan in output value. "To this end, local governments have lost 780 million yuan in income taxes and VATs of about 1.78 billion yuan. Despite import revenues of approximately 1.38 billion yuan in tariffs and value-added tax, they still bring net tax losses to the country of nearly 400 million yuan." Zhang Yang said.

However, the 2010 situation in the data sheet looks even more serious.

According to the average import price of 70 US dollars (the actual market price has reached 95 US dollars), the cost of foreign manufacturers in accordance with the calculation of 30 US dollars, foreign manufacturers from China earned a profit of 1.6 billion US dollars.

Zhang Yang told the reporter that the cost of Chinese polysilicon companies is calculated at 300 yuan per kilogram (the lowest has reached 23 US dollars per kilogram), and the sales price is calculated at 650 yuan per kilogram (the highest price reaches 800 yuan per kilogram), and domestic manufacturers lose profits. 140 billion yuan, the domestic reduction of 26 billion yuan in output value; taking into account the 3.36 billion yuan in value-added tax gains from customs, a net loss of 4.56 billion yuan in domestic tax revenue.

Domestic enterprises have lost opportunity to upgrade. “If they honestly follow the requirements of 'No.38 Document', they will be like most other manufacturers. Because of the scale restrictions, not only will polysilicon production costs remain high, but energy consumption and pollution problems will also be difficult to obtain. Solve.” Wang Chuan said.

Another person in charge of domestic production of polysilicon, Wang Chuan (a pseudonym), also broke the news to this reporter: "Since 'No. 38' was used to suppress domestic polysilicon, domestic manufacturers lost a lot of cost for scale. opportunity."

“From the perspective of the existing domestic Siemens factory, all manufacturers that have already gone on the scale have significantly reduced costs, energy consumption has also dropped substantially, and pollution problems have been basically solved,” said Wang Chuan.

Wang Chuan said: "Taking Jiangsu Zhongneng as an example, the company's cost has dropped to 24 U.S. dollars by September 2010. That is, the direct cost is 160 yuan per kilogram. Considering depreciation and interest, the cost is less than 220 yuan. In accordance with normal market rules, the price of polysilicon at 350 yuan per kilogram is a normal market price."

"However, the success of Jiangsu Zhongneng was due to its dare to wipe the ball and withstand the pressure of 'No. 38'. They quietly 'upgraded' the original production line of 13,500 tons per year to 20,000 tons per year. Leap over Japanese companies to become Asia's largest polysilicon manufacturer, but also more successfully solved the problem of pollution." Wang Chuan said.

"If they honestly follow the requirements of 'No.38 Document', it will be the same as most other manufacturers. Because of the scale restrictions, not only the cost of polysilicon production will remain high, but also energy consumption and pollution problems will be difficult to solve." Say.

Immediately afterwards, Wang Chuan told reporters about the more insider facts.

In 2010, the market price of polysilicon increased from 400,000 yuan per ton to 700,000 yuan per ton (spot price reached 800,000 yuan per ton); in accordance with 8 grams of polysilicon per watt, the cost of only polysilicon of PV modules rose by 2.4 yuan. RMB/kWh, which corresponds to the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation, means that the cost per kWh increases by 0.12 yuan. According to the Chinese government's subsidy of 5GW in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” and the calculation for 25 years, the increase in the cost of polysilicon alone will require government subsidies of 22.5 billion yuan.

However, according to the reporter’s understanding, due to the fear of China’s new energy industry, especially the photovoltaic industry's leading edge, and the increasing impact of its international financial crisis, trade protection forces have risen from the perspective of transferring their domestic economic contradictions. The European and American countries have successively introduced a series of measures to try to suppress China's photovoltaic industry.

Wang Chuan stated that following the failure to attempt to increase tariffs, Germany had resorted to setting up technical barriers to the lower limit of the conversion efficiency of PV imports. The EU tried to carry out an anti-dumping investigation against China, and the United States requested that the steel workers federation start a “301 "The bill" investigates Japan's restrictions on the export of graphite, carbon fiber and other products required for photovoltaics to China.

Industry Insiders Call for a Suspension Project A person close to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology told reporters that with the release of the “Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements”, several stagnant polysilicon projects have returned to dawn.

"'No.38 document' may be lifted during the year, but the exact time is not clear." The above person said.

In mid-March 2011, Zhu Gongshan, chairman of the board of directors of the largest polycrystalline silicon producer in China, announced that in the silicon materials business, the company will expand production capacity based on the existing polysilicon and wafer production capacity. It is expected that the polysilicon production capacity will reach 46,000 tons by the end of 2011. .

Apart from GCL-Poly's capacity expansion plan, LDK, Daquan Group and China Metallurgical Group have similar arrangements.

“China Metallurgical has plans to expand polysilicon production capacity and plans to have a production capacity of 10,000 tons in 2011.” said Zhang Zhaolong, Vice President of China Metallurgical Group, China's polysilicon production is not sufficient to meet domestic demand, so there is no excess capacity, and the current state of the new energy The support is increasing.

Zhang Zhaolong believes that although the production of 1 ton of polysilicon consumes more than 10,000 kWh of electricity, the use of polysilicon has a relatively high energy efficiency. Therefore, "polysilicon is not a high-tech industry."

In January of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, and the three ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Environmental Protection jointly issued the "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements", which brought a glimmer of hope to polysilicon companies.

On May 31, a person involved in the drafting of the “Entry Conditions” told this reporter that scale, energy consumption, and environmental protection were the “three red lines” defined by China’s new polysilicon project under “Admission Requirements”: Single-line capacity Above 3,000 tons, the comprehensive energy consumption does not exceed 200 kilowatt-hours per kilogram, and pollution is reduced.

“Taking capacity standards as an example, this is an international standard, and currently only 1/4 of the country’s more than 40 polysilicon enterprises have reached this level. The projects that have been filed and are ready for construction have been issued under the “Entry Conditions”. After that, half of them will not be approved.” The above person told this reporter.

"We have no matter what we have built. New projects must meet this standard before they can be approved." The above-mentioned sources said that before the new polysilicon project was implemented, the "recording system" was implemented, but after the "admission conditions" were issued, the "approval system will be implemented." "The new polysilicon project that does not meet the "Standard" will not be launched.

Zhang Yang told this reporter that several polysilicon projects should be approved by the National Development and Reform Commission this year. In addition to the requirements for approval of polysilicon industry access requirements, approved projects should be selected among companies with better qualifications, and the possibility of new construction and expansion at the same time is extremely high.

Zhang Yang believes that the small polysilicon plants with a domestic scale of less than 3,000 tons do have problems such as high energy consumption and no closed-cycle facilities, but the “Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements” has made explicit provisions on this, plus WACKER, Deshan, OCI, etc. Large international companies are expanding their production. “The domestic cost is higher than that of the international giants by around US$20/tonne. If there is no expansion, there will be no competitiveness at all.”

A person close to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology told reporters that with the release of the "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements", several stagnant polysilicon projects were revived. "'No.38 document' may be lifted during the year, but the exact time is not clear." The above person said.

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