China implemented the "Renewable Energy Law" in 2006 and began the development of photovoltaics. Recently, China's photovoltaic power generation applications have been jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Energy Administration. The deployment of the “Golden Sun Demonstration Project†has led to further breakthroughs in China’s photovoltaic applications. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", various preferential policies have also promoted its development.
Global PV Market Size Overview According to solar consulting firm Solarbuzz, in 2010, global photovoltaic industry revenue reached 82 billion US dollars, compared with 40 billion US dollars in 2009, an increase of 105%. Shine magazine reported that in 2010, the global photovoltaic market reached a growth rate of 139%. According to "Solar Generation 6" (Solar Generation 6), the global photovoltaic market will attract 129 billion investment in 2020 and 149 billion euros in 2050. It will account for 70% of the world.
(1) The development of the photovoltaic industry chain is optimistic.
Solarbuzz also predicts that the global PV manufacturing equipment market will reach US$11.7 billion in 2011, exceeding US$10.7 billion in 2010; and it shows that the global solar PV installations amounted to 18.2 million kilowatts in 2010, an increase of 139% over the previous year; European PV industry According to the association (EPIA), the new assembly of photovoltaic modules in the world will reach 21.145 gigawatts in 2011, an increase of 27% over 2010. If the policy is favorable, the global PV installation capacity in 2014 will exceed 30GW in one year; According to the report, in 2010, 21GW of global photovoltaic cells had doubled from 10.5GW in 2009; 13.5% of total solar cells accounted for thin-film solar cells, and 59% of global solar cells were produced in mainland China and Taiwan, higher than in 2009. Out of 10%, China occupied 55% of global market share last year. Last year, eight major polysilicon consumers had annual production capacity of 145,200 tons, and the top eight wafer makers accounted for about 45% of the global wafer supply share.
(2) The decline in shipments of PV modules, reduction of subsidy policies, and price decline will not affect the PV market in the second half of the year.
According to the latest report from IMS Research, the international research institute, the global inventory of photovoltaic modules exceeded 10 GW in the first quarter of 2011, and shipments fell by nearly 10 percent. Excessive supply at the end of the second quarter caused European solar module ex-factory prices to drop by about 16 percent. The decline in the four seasons will reach 25%. Recently, the prices of photovoltaic modules and batteries have continued to decline, resulting in sharp declines in revenues for various companies. According to May’s first-quarter results released by the US’s FirstSolar, the division’s first-quarter profit fell 33% from the same period of last year due to falling sales prices, rising costs, and a slowdown in the growth of the European solar market. German Q-Cells photovoltaic giant quarterly earnings also showed that the company's revenue decreased by 46% to 125,100 million euros, net loss reached 41.1 million euros. Domestic photovoltaic giant Yingli Green Energy expects that in the first quarter of 2011, the shipment of photovoltaic products will fall by more than 10% from the previous month, and the gross profit rate will be between 27% and 27.5%, which is lower than the previously expected 30%-31%. Shen Fuxin, secretary general of the Solar Energy Association of Zhejiang Province, pointed out that the current export prices of photovoltaic modules in China have fallen to 0.8 euro per watt (about 1.4 euros/watt last year).
According to media reports, countries such as Germany, France, Spain, and Italy adjusted their subsidies for the photovoltaic industry. For example, in July, Germany reduced the rate of subsidy below 12% to a maximum of 15%, and cut roof and battery assembly installations; Italy's annual subsidies for solar power generation are limited to 6 billion euros to 7 billion euros, and it has been maintained By 2016, the subsidy for photovoltaic on-grid tariffs will be reduced, but these policies will have no significant impact on the development of the photovoltaic industry.
Suzhou Aters said that the adjustment of the European photovoltaic policy has little effect on its divisional performance. The division's marketing department Li Mao said that the adjustment of the European photovoltaic policy will make the European market pay more attention to the product market, which is beneficial to the development of big brands. The first quarterly report shows that the performance of Artes was growing with the same period of last year. Tang Yiming, executive director and chief financial officer of GCL-Poly, pointed out that the price drop is not a problem, and the key is that the cost falls faster than the price drop, which is normal. Meng Xianyi, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that lowering the price of photovoltaic products will lead to a decrease in the cost of photovoltaic power generation, which in turn will contribute to the further development of the market. At the end of June, the EU summit plans to launch the latest bailout plan for Greece to ensure the stability of the euro area. This is in fact a poor digestion of the “European debt crisis†of PV companies. It is also said that the German government has cancelled the original 6% reduction subsidy plan; the Chinese government also stated that Solar power users will be able to access the Internet before 2015, which will help promote the development of the photovoltaic industry.
ISuppli research shows that PV demand will remain strong this year and will benefit the entire industry. It is expected that the industry's total operating profit margin will increase quarter by quarter, reaching 16% in the second quarter, rising to 17% in the third quarter and reaching 19% in the fourth quarter. Liu Qing, the photovoltaic analyst of the institution, said that he is optimistic about the prospects of the photovoltaic market; Zhu Chenghui, an analyst at Xiangcai Securities Research Institute, said that from the perspective of supply and demand, the peak season for PV demand is coming. Senior PV industry veterans also pointed out that they are listed. The company’s quarterly report confirms that everyone is optimistic about the outlook for the second half of the year and states that Italy and other countries’ PV subsidies will be beneficial to the development of domestic enterprises (low cost, high cost performance can better withstand market price cuts); Tang Yiming estimates that the overall situation of the PV market will be From June onwards, CSI, president and CEO of CSI, said that with the slowdown in the development of nuclear power in various countries, PV will show greater competitiveness. After the nuclear crisis in Japan, it is believed that in the future, photovoltaic power generation will occupy a larger proportion in the energy structure.
A number of international research institutions released the 2011 PV forecast report, showing that this year's industry growth rate is about 20%, and the global photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly. It is understood that China's photovoltaic industry has occupied more than 50% of the global market share, and photovoltaic installed capacity will continue to grow.
(3) The global installed capacity of photovoltaics keeps growing.
ISuppli statistics show that in 2010, the global PV installed capacity was as high as 15.7GW, which was a year-on-year increase of 120%. Among them, Germany has a high of 6,727MW, accounting for about half of the world; Italy, 2,850MW, the second largest in the world; and Solarbuzz, a research organization, shows that in 2010, the global amount of solar photovoltaic installations reached a record 18.2 million kilowatts, an increase of 139% over the previous year; The agency forecasts that the global installed capacity of photovoltaics will be about 20 GW in 2011; the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) also expects that the installed capacity of solar photovoltaics will reach 130-200 GW by 2015. It is reported that the global installed capacity of solar PV will increase from the current 36GW to 180GW in 2015, and that of Europe will increase from the current 28GW to 100GW in 2015.
According to Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, by 2015, China's PV installation target will reach 10 GW, and by 2020, it will target at least 50 GW. Shen Fuxin, secretary general of the Zhejiang Solar Energy Industry Association, expects that domestic demand for photovoltaic installations will break out in two to three years. Meng Xianlu, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that China’s new photovoltaic power generation capacity this year is expected to exceed 1GW for the first time. Trina Solar CEO Gao Jifan stated at the “Global PV Market Forum & CEO Summit of the 5th International Solar Photovoltaic Congress†that the installed capacity in 2010 was 15 GW, which was about 10 times that of 2006, but the cost was reduced by about half. In 2015, the industry installed capacity was 35GW, and the development of the photovoltaic industry will enter a new track.
The performance of the inverter market highlights the increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaics. If all of them can be connected to the grid, there is no doubt that the PV inverter market is a great source of good news. In fact, the current explosive growth in demand for solar power will also drive the development of the photovoltaic inverter market, making it the last large-scale rich mine in the photovoltaic industry.
The latest report of IMS Research's global PV inverter market research shows that in 2009, the global PV inverter shipments were 8.3 GW, and sales revenue was 2.8 billion US dollars. Among them, the three markets of Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic have reached nearly 2 billion U.S. dollars (Germany consumes 4.2 GW of inverters, and the market sales value reaches 1.4 billion U.S. dollars). In 2010, the global photovoltaic market reached 14.6 GW. The new installed capacity of the inverter will be the same as in 2010, with sales of US$4.5 billion. It also expects that by 2014, the global PV inverter market will reach US$8.5 billion, with an annual comprehensive growth rate of nearly 25%. The report also revealed that more than 7 million inverters will be sold in 2014, and less than 1 million in 2009, and that the future market, although affected by prices, will still double in the next five years. According to reports, the current market size of photovoltaic inverters is about 43 billion yuan. It is expected that by 2015, even considering the decline in selling prices, it will exceed 100 billion yuan.
According to AshSharma, senior research director of photovoltaics at IMS Research, PV inverter shipments will decline by 5% in 2011 (the agency data shows that global PV inverter first-quarter shipments also fell 39% from the previous quarter to 4GW) , mainly due to the oversupply of the market in 2010, he also said that due to homogeneous competition and falling prices caused by the inverter industry revenue decline. Facts have proved that the high prices faced by inverter suppliers in the first half of this year have fallen by 10-15% in the competition, but they have prompted the emergence of some emerging markets such as small inverters and have seized market share. At the equilibrium price level. IMS Research also predicts that the overall price of inverters will fall by 8% in 2011, but Sharma is still optimistic about the 2011 photovoltaic inverter market. He believes that its shipments will still exceed 20GW and its revenue can reach 6 billion U.S. dollars. More than doubled, it is expected that the large inverters used in the megawatt power station and the small three-phase inverters used in commercial applications (features: easy to install and expand, up to 560%) will be favored .
DIGITIMESResearch pointed out that at present, Taiwan plant inverters are certified by most countries for grid connection, and the quality of products is quite high. However, China's mainland and Taiwan have different strategies, positioning, and prices in the photovoltaic industry. At present, Europe dominates the solar inverter market. However, the shipments in Asia have also increased significantly last year, and new entrants have also been accelerating. In particular, China has introduced various policies to promote its development. The research agency estimates that China's inverter shipments will continue to climb in 2011. At present, KSTAR, XJ Electric, Rongxin, Kyushu Electric, Hefei Sunshine and Kehua Hengsheng have entered the inverter field.
In the inverter industry, the growth of magnetic components companies is slightly excited. The solar alternator system consists of solar panels, charge controllers, inverters and batteries. It is mainly composed of electronic components and does not involve mechanical components. The solar inverter is the entire The key components of the solar system.
The inverter is the core equipment of the photovoltaic system connected to the power grid, and the product quality directly affects the stability of the photovoltaic power generation system. At present, its market cost is 1 yuan -1.5 yuan per watt, accounting for 10%-15% of the total cost (referring to the entire photovoltaic power generation system). Calculated from China's 2010 PV grid-connected capacity of 500 megawatts, the market value is about 500 million yuan. According to Deputy Director Li Junfeng of the Energy Development Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the installed capacity of domestic PV will be increased to 10 GW in 2015. Assuming all grid connections, the domestic inverter market is expected to reach 10 billion yuan by the calculation of 1 yuan/watt.
It is understood that many companies are currently optimistic about the development of photovoltaic inverters. Kstar PV inverters have been selected as Golden Sun project and become one of eight inverter suppliers. The total volume of orders or orders it receives is about 20-30MW, and photovoltaic inverter will become the company's new profit. Highlights, and foreign giants Emerson, APC-MGE and Eaton market share of nearly 60%, Shan billion new energy inverter products in the Australian market share of 20%, it is reported that Zhengtai Electric will invest 100 million yuan for photovoltaic inverter Transformer project.
Inverter growth analysis ISuppli predicts that solar inverter shipments will increase by 13 times in 2008-2012, and shipments in 2012 will increase from 723,329 in 2008 to 9.5 million. With the continuous expansion of market demand and the diversification of applications, power supplies and magnetic components will also grow. Foshan Xinguang Hongrui Power Equipment Co., Ltd. Fan Yi, deputy manager said that the company has entered the field of solar inverter power, and is particularly concerned about the relevant information; Nanjing Guanya Power Equipment Co., Ltd. Zhang Haibo, general manager also revealed that photovoltaic has been the Division The focus of development; Wen Guoguang, deputy general manager of Fuli Electronics Factory, is full of confidence in photovoltaics, and said that the company is doing research and development of solar inverter power and is full of hope for the photovoltaic industry.
The advent of the photovoltaic industry has made major companies full of temptations and hopes, and they have to “give full attentionâ€. Kong Hao, an engineer at Chuang Magnetic Electronics Co., Ltd., said that for the future of environmental protection and renewable energy, the company is keeping a close eye on emerging markets and entering the solar field. Exploration work; Lv Xiaorong, assistant to general manager of Shenzhen Jingquanhua Electronics Co., Ltd., believes that the solar energy field belongs to a national supporting project and will make further investment.
(1) Magnetic components with good performance, high efficiency, and low price become the darlings of photovoltaic inverters.
Photovoltaic inverters are divided into large and small power. Larger technical requirements are higher, but domestic manufacturers have more medium and small power, and they can compete with foreign countries. High-powered inverters must have good stability and high frequency. High efficiency, high power density, high reliability and high intelligence will be the future direction of inverter development.
Specialized in the development, development and production of solar energy & wind power grid-connected inverters, solar & wind power off-grid inverters, intelligent controllers, street lamp controllers, Nanjing Guanya, the engineer of the technical department, Cui Hairui introduced in the photovoltaic industry The magnetic components used in the inverter are relatively large, including electronic transformers, reactors, inductors, filters, etc., but it is hoped that large inductance, high efficiency, low price, and amorphous components can be used; photovoltaics with independent intellectual property rights Wang Jianbin, an engineer of product development at Beijing Jingyi Green Power Systems Engineering Co., Ltd., an inverter and related product, points out that in a photovoltaic inverter, at least one differential mode inductor and one common mode inductor should be used, but based on Inverters have changed in various operating environments; Xie Xiaoyong, New Energy Engineering Department, Shenzhen Kstar Industrial Technology Development Co., Ltd. stated that currently the PV market is very active and domestic sales are getting better and better. Increased. High- and low-frequency electronic transformers, inductors (especially high-power), magnetic rings and other magnetic components are all needed, and the amount is large. At the same time, the requirements for the efficiency of electronic transformers are higher, and the certification requirements for products, materials, and components are also relatively high. High, generally used foreign products, such as amorphous materials are TDK, Hitachi, etc., mainly because of their good product performance, high quality, in line with the company's R & D production requirements, domestic products in the selection and process also has a certain gap, need to be from the whole On the analysis of product characteristics, and then choose which products, not all do not need to use domestic products; dedicated to solar energy, wind energy and other renewable energy power conversion products R & D, production and sales of Shanghai Zhengtai Power Systems Co., Ltd., the supplier development manager Tao Weijin said Due to the high requirements for photovoltaic inverters, high-performance, high-power density, high-flux products are needed, but the price is very expensive, especially for foreign products. Domestic products have problems such as performance and material, and the amount of magnetic components is large. , About 20%, domestic magnetic component manufacturers need to continuously improve their technical level. Guangdong Yishite Power Co., Ltd. is committed to the development, production and sales of new energy products such as UPS power supply and photovoltaic power generation. Liu Gong, a technical center engineer, said that a photovoltaic inverter will basically use 6 to 7 inductors. The use of different types of products in different locations requires selection based on the specific environment, model, and structure, which is mainly reflected in stability, temperature rise, etc., but the inverter precisely requires that the magnetic element performance be stable, the temperature change is not significant, and the efficiency higher.
(2) The photovoltaic industry has strongly promoted the development of the magnetic component industry and allowed it to continuously improve.
According to reports, Hengdian East Magnetic achieved revenue of 30.01 billion yuan last year, an increase of 122.22%. The operating profit was 423 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 133.62%. In the field of solar inverters and LEDs, the soft magnetic margin was 31.35%, which was a year-on-year increase of 2.51 percentage points. Solar business expanded rapidly, achieving revenue of 973 million yuan and gross profit rate of 17.80%. It is reported that the expansion of solar project capacity will continue to be an important driving force for its revenue growth. According to analysts from the securities industry, North Mine Magnetic Materials and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials are affected by new energy industries such as photovoltaics. The industry outlook is very attractive. It has long-term investment value, and new energy industries such as photovoltaics will further promote the development of magnetic component manufacturers. As time passes, components will also be continuously improved to some extent.
The main components of the PV inverter include power frequency transformers, high frequency transformers, drive transformers, filter inductors, energy storage inductors, and forward transformers. The electronic transformer (power frequency, high frequency) plays the role of insulation and power conversion in the main circuit of the inverter. The driving electronic transformer mainly performs signal conversion and drives switching devices. The forward electronic transformer is used for energy storage and conversion and insulation (minus Small loss, reduced volume, weight and manufacturing costs, the general carrier frequency is about 20kHz). General cores use (low frequency) cold-rolled oriented silicon steel, iron-based amorphous alloy (low frequency: gold coiled or lapped, high frequency: toroidal and CD type) or MnZn soft ferrite (high frequency). However, the use of low-frequency amorphous high efficiency, low cost, small volume and weight, iron loss is only 1/5 of the cold rolled silicon steel laminated core, the overall efficiency of up to 95%, it is understood that the foreign power frequency transformer about For 50% of the total weight of the inverter, the total efficiency of the inverter is approximately 90%. The use of high-frequency amorphous, soft magnetic ferrite, the working flux density and high efficiency, volume, weight, total loss, magnetostriction coefficient, by the temperature change is small, resulting in low electromagnetic interference characteristics .
The numerous advantages of amorphous alloy transformers have played an important role in the rise of the photovoltaic industry. It is reported that the use of amorphous alloy transformers, compared with the widely used S11-type transformers, its no-load loss energy-saving rate of more than 70%, compared to nearly 40% energy saving, but also reduced than the traditional silicon steel pressure loss no-load loss of about 80% . At the same time, it can effectively ease the tension in electricity consumption, greatly reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, and effectively reduce the pollution of the environment. Reported that in 2009 the market size of about 1.7 billion, is expected to reach 160 billion yuan in the next decade, the current annual increase in the distribution transformer amorphous transformer accounted for about 5%, has broad prospects.
The filter inductor is used in the inverter to eliminate high-order harmonics in DC and AC. The iron powder core is used in DC, the oriented silicon steel and amorphous alloy are used in AC, and the energy storage inductor stores energy in the boost part of the inverter. And change role (can use iron powder core, oriented silicon steel and amorphous alloy).
Yan Chong, senior engineer and engineering engineer of Hengdian East Magnetic Soft Magnetic Division, believes that 90% of photovoltaics are currently connected to the grid. He said that currently, Dongmin currently supplies magnetic materials for solar inverters, including amorphous and soft magnetic products. The output is about 20%. With the development of the photovoltaic industry, the domestic magnetic material industry has gradually grown. Although East Magnetics is also developing and producing photovoltaic products, the sales volume of magnetic materials is not very much related to it. Currently, the source of customers is still before and the production output is maintained. Also gradually showing growth. In recent years, the photovoltaic industry has been affected by price declines and European policies. It is still not optimistic. He expects that it will achieve better development in China in the coming years.
Chen Guilin, general manager of Shenzhen Jinshunyi Electronics Co., Ltd., said that the company has been paying attention to the development of the photovoltaic industry and entered the field last year. However, the current volume is not large, may be due to the immature market, etc., and customers have higher requirements for inductor technology, such as Reliability, and that the price is too expensive, especially amorphous, Jin Shunyi is currently developing a kind of amorphous products that can replace the higher prices, will soon be used, but also for reactor products dedicated to photovoltaic inverter, hope Can open the photovoltaic market as soon as possible.
Magnetic components still play a role in reliability in the photovoltaic industry
The sustainable development of China's photovoltaic industry will effectively drive the magnetic component industry. In recent years, magnetic components have gradually evolved into light, thin, and small directions, and at the same time, they have also undergone certain changes in the process. In particular, electronic transformers have been developed in the direction of high frequency, low loss, light weight, and small size. Soft magnetic core materials with high saturation magnetic susceptibility, high initial magnetic permeability, and low high frequency loss will be boosters for the development of various components. As we all know, the core material of electronic transformers is best to have high saturation magnetic induction, low high frequency loss, high initial permeability, high Curie degree and good stability (environment), stress insensitive, high squareness ratio Br/Bs Or low Br (pulse transformer) and so on. At present, the characteristics of amorphous nanocrystalline alloy materials are recognized, it is understood that it can improve product performance, quality and promote miniaturization, becoming the most favored role of soft magnetic core materials.
At present, due to the high requirements for magnetic components of photovoltaic inverters, especially high-power, high-efficiency, high-performance, high-power density, high-flux, low-cost and stable components that have little effect on heating, China At present, the use of magnetic components in photovoltaic inverters still has problems with materials, processes, properties, and quality. However, major manufacturers in China began to try to research and develop products that meet the requirements of photovoltaic inverters, such as finding alternative amorphous alloy materials that are expensive, and constantly adapting to changes in photovoltaic products. In the future, photovoltaic inverters will not only be used in power stations, but consumer electronics such as notebooks and mobile phones may also be "played," and the magnetic component industry will gain better opportunities for development.
Even so, the major manufacturers still need to precipitate and stabilize their influence in the industry. They should be down-to-earth, not to blame, not to be quick-motivated, and to improve their comprehensive level in order to best realize their own corporate value and social value. At the same time, we should also strengthen the field of expertise and pay attention to the development of new industries such as photovoltaics. As the industry analysts point out, accurately and objectively grasp the development trend of the photovoltaic industry, identify the entry point for the industry, and focus on assault will become the face of the magnetic component companies. The theme of the right.
Global PV Market Size Overview According to solar consulting firm Solarbuzz, in 2010, global photovoltaic industry revenue reached 82 billion US dollars, compared with 40 billion US dollars in 2009, an increase of 105%. Shine magazine reported that in 2010, the global photovoltaic market reached a growth rate of 139%. According to "Solar Generation 6" (Solar Generation 6), the global photovoltaic market will attract 129 billion investment in 2020 and 149 billion euros in 2050. It will account for 70% of the world.
(1) The development of the photovoltaic industry chain is optimistic.
Solarbuzz also predicts that the global PV manufacturing equipment market will reach US$11.7 billion in 2011, exceeding US$10.7 billion in 2010; and it shows that the global solar PV installations amounted to 18.2 million kilowatts in 2010, an increase of 139% over the previous year; European PV industry According to the association (EPIA), the new assembly of photovoltaic modules in the world will reach 21.145 gigawatts in 2011, an increase of 27% over 2010. If the policy is favorable, the global PV installation capacity in 2014 will exceed 30GW in one year; According to the report, in 2010, 21GW of global photovoltaic cells had doubled from 10.5GW in 2009; 13.5% of total solar cells accounted for thin-film solar cells, and 59% of global solar cells were produced in mainland China and Taiwan, higher than in 2009. Out of 10%, China occupied 55% of global market share last year. Last year, eight major polysilicon consumers had annual production capacity of 145,200 tons, and the top eight wafer makers accounted for about 45% of the global wafer supply share.
(2) The decline in shipments of PV modules, reduction of subsidy policies, and price decline will not affect the PV market in the second half of the year.
According to the latest report from IMS Research, the international research institute, the global inventory of photovoltaic modules exceeded 10 GW in the first quarter of 2011, and shipments fell by nearly 10 percent. Excessive supply at the end of the second quarter caused European solar module ex-factory prices to drop by about 16 percent. The decline in the four seasons will reach 25%. Recently, the prices of photovoltaic modules and batteries have continued to decline, resulting in sharp declines in revenues for various companies. According to May’s first-quarter results released by the US’s FirstSolar, the division’s first-quarter profit fell 33% from the same period of last year due to falling sales prices, rising costs, and a slowdown in the growth of the European solar market. German Q-Cells photovoltaic giant quarterly earnings also showed that the company's revenue decreased by 46% to 125,100 million euros, net loss reached 41.1 million euros. Domestic photovoltaic giant Yingli Green Energy expects that in the first quarter of 2011, the shipment of photovoltaic products will fall by more than 10% from the previous month, and the gross profit rate will be between 27% and 27.5%, which is lower than the previously expected 30%-31%. Shen Fuxin, secretary general of the Solar Energy Association of Zhejiang Province, pointed out that the current export prices of photovoltaic modules in China have fallen to 0.8 euro per watt (about 1.4 euros/watt last year).
According to media reports, countries such as Germany, France, Spain, and Italy adjusted their subsidies for the photovoltaic industry. For example, in July, Germany reduced the rate of subsidy below 12% to a maximum of 15%, and cut roof and battery assembly installations; Italy's annual subsidies for solar power generation are limited to 6 billion euros to 7 billion euros, and it has been maintained By 2016, the subsidy for photovoltaic on-grid tariffs will be reduced, but these policies will have no significant impact on the development of the photovoltaic industry.
Suzhou Aters said that the adjustment of the European photovoltaic policy has little effect on its divisional performance. The division's marketing department Li Mao said that the adjustment of the European photovoltaic policy will make the European market pay more attention to the product market, which is beneficial to the development of big brands. The first quarterly report shows that the performance of Artes was growing with the same period of last year. Tang Yiming, executive director and chief financial officer of GCL-Poly, pointed out that the price drop is not a problem, and the key is that the cost falls faster than the price drop, which is normal. Meng Xianyi, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that lowering the price of photovoltaic products will lead to a decrease in the cost of photovoltaic power generation, which in turn will contribute to the further development of the market. At the end of June, the EU summit plans to launch the latest bailout plan for Greece to ensure the stability of the euro area. This is in fact a poor digestion of the “European debt crisis†of PV companies. It is also said that the German government has cancelled the original 6% reduction subsidy plan; the Chinese government also stated that Solar power users will be able to access the Internet before 2015, which will help promote the development of the photovoltaic industry.
ISuppli research shows that PV demand will remain strong this year and will benefit the entire industry. It is expected that the industry's total operating profit margin will increase quarter by quarter, reaching 16% in the second quarter, rising to 17% in the third quarter and reaching 19% in the fourth quarter. Liu Qing, the photovoltaic analyst of the institution, said that he is optimistic about the prospects of the photovoltaic market; Zhu Chenghui, an analyst at Xiangcai Securities Research Institute, said that from the perspective of supply and demand, the peak season for PV demand is coming. Senior PV industry veterans also pointed out that they are listed. The company’s quarterly report confirms that everyone is optimistic about the outlook for the second half of the year and states that Italy and other countries’ PV subsidies will be beneficial to the development of domestic enterprises (low cost, high cost performance can better withstand market price cuts); Tang Yiming estimates that the overall situation of the PV market will be From June onwards, CSI, president and CEO of CSI, said that with the slowdown in the development of nuclear power in various countries, PV will show greater competitiveness. After the nuclear crisis in Japan, it is believed that in the future, photovoltaic power generation will occupy a larger proportion in the energy structure.
A number of international research institutions released the 2011 PV forecast report, showing that this year's industry growth rate is about 20%, and the global photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly. It is understood that China's photovoltaic industry has occupied more than 50% of the global market share, and photovoltaic installed capacity will continue to grow.
(3) The global installed capacity of photovoltaics keeps growing.
ISuppli statistics show that in 2010, the global PV installed capacity was as high as 15.7GW, which was a year-on-year increase of 120%. Among them, Germany has a high of 6,727MW, accounting for about half of the world; Italy, 2,850MW, the second largest in the world; and Solarbuzz, a research organization, shows that in 2010, the global amount of solar photovoltaic installations reached a record 18.2 million kilowatts, an increase of 139% over the previous year; The agency forecasts that the global installed capacity of photovoltaics will be about 20 GW in 2011; the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) also expects that the installed capacity of solar photovoltaics will reach 130-200 GW by 2015. It is reported that the global installed capacity of solar PV will increase from the current 36GW to 180GW in 2015, and that of Europe will increase from the current 28GW to 100GW in 2015.
According to Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, by 2015, China's PV installation target will reach 10 GW, and by 2020, it will target at least 50 GW. Shen Fuxin, secretary general of the Zhejiang Solar Energy Industry Association, expects that domestic demand for photovoltaic installations will break out in two to three years. Meng Xianlu, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that China’s new photovoltaic power generation capacity this year is expected to exceed 1GW for the first time. Trina Solar CEO Gao Jifan stated at the “Global PV Market Forum & CEO Summit of the 5th International Solar Photovoltaic Congress†that the installed capacity in 2010 was 15 GW, which was about 10 times that of 2006, but the cost was reduced by about half. In 2015, the industry installed capacity was 35GW, and the development of the photovoltaic industry will enter a new track.
The performance of the inverter market highlights the increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaics. If all of them can be connected to the grid, there is no doubt that the PV inverter market is a great source of good news. In fact, the current explosive growth in demand for solar power will also drive the development of the photovoltaic inverter market, making it the last large-scale rich mine in the photovoltaic industry.
The latest report of IMS Research's global PV inverter market research shows that in 2009, the global PV inverter shipments were 8.3 GW, and sales revenue was 2.8 billion US dollars. Among them, the three markets of Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic have reached nearly 2 billion U.S. dollars (Germany consumes 4.2 GW of inverters, and the market sales value reaches 1.4 billion U.S. dollars). In 2010, the global photovoltaic market reached 14.6 GW. The new installed capacity of the inverter will be the same as in 2010, with sales of US$4.5 billion. It also expects that by 2014, the global PV inverter market will reach US$8.5 billion, with an annual comprehensive growth rate of nearly 25%. The report also revealed that more than 7 million inverters will be sold in 2014, and less than 1 million in 2009, and that the future market, although affected by prices, will still double in the next five years. According to reports, the current market size of photovoltaic inverters is about 43 billion yuan. It is expected that by 2015, even considering the decline in selling prices, it will exceed 100 billion yuan.
According to AshSharma, senior research director of photovoltaics at IMS Research, PV inverter shipments will decline by 5% in 2011 (the agency data shows that global PV inverter first-quarter shipments also fell 39% from the previous quarter to 4GW) , mainly due to the oversupply of the market in 2010, he also said that due to homogeneous competition and falling prices caused by the inverter industry revenue decline. Facts have proved that the high prices faced by inverter suppliers in the first half of this year have fallen by 10-15% in the competition, but they have prompted the emergence of some emerging markets such as small inverters and have seized market share. At the equilibrium price level. IMS Research also predicts that the overall price of inverters will fall by 8% in 2011, but Sharma is still optimistic about the 2011 photovoltaic inverter market. He believes that its shipments will still exceed 20GW and its revenue can reach 6 billion U.S. dollars. More than doubled, it is expected that the large inverters used in the megawatt power station and the small three-phase inverters used in commercial applications (features: easy to install and expand, up to 560%) will be favored .
DIGITIMESResearch pointed out that at present, Taiwan plant inverters are certified by most countries for grid connection, and the quality of products is quite high. However, China's mainland and Taiwan have different strategies, positioning, and prices in the photovoltaic industry. At present, Europe dominates the solar inverter market. However, the shipments in Asia have also increased significantly last year, and new entrants have also been accelerating. In particular, China has introduced various policies to promote its development. The research agency estimates that China's inverter shipments will continue to climb in 2011. At present, KSTAR, XJ Electric, Rongxin, Kyushu Electric, Hefei Sunshine and Kehua Hengsheng have entered the inverter field.
In the inverter industry, the growth of magnetic components companies is slightly excited. The solar alternator system consists of solar panels, charge controllers, inverters and batteries. It is mainly composed of electronic components and does not involve mechanical components. The solar inverter is the entire The key components of the solar system.
The inverter is the core equipment of the photovoltaic system connected to the power grid, and the product quality directly affects the stability of the photovoltaic power generation system. At present, its market cost is 1 yuan -1.5 yuan per watt, accounting for 10%-15% of the total cost (referring to the entire photovoltaic power generation system). Calculated from China's 2010 PV grid-connected capacity of 500 megawatts, the market value is about 500 million yuan. According to Deputy Director Li Junfeng of the Energy Development Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the installed capacity of domestic PV will be increased to 10 GW in 2015. Assuming all grid connections, the domestic inverter market is expected to reach 10 billion yuan by the calculation of 1 yuan/watt.
It is understood that many companies are currently optimistic about the development of photovoltaic inverters. Kstar PV inverters have been selected as Golden Sun project and become one of eight inverter suppliers. The total volume of orders or orders it receives is about 20-30MW, and photovoltaic inverter will become the company's new profit. Highlights, and foreign giants Emerson, APC-MGE and Eaton market share of nearly 60%, Shan billion new energy inverter products in the Australian market share of 20%, it is reported that Zhengtai Electric will invest 100 million yuan for photovoltaic inverter Transformer project.
Inverter growth analysis ISuppli predicts that solar inverter shipments will increase by 13 times in 2008-2012, and shipments in 2012 will increase from 723,329 in 2008 to 9.5 million. With the continuous expansion of market demand and the diversification of applications, power supplies and magnetic components will also grow. Foshan Xinguang Hongrui Power Equipment Co., Ltd. Fan Yi, deputy manager said that the company has entered the field of solar inverter power, and is particularly concerned about the relevant information; Nanjing Guanya Power Equipment Co., Ltd. Zhang Haibo, general manager also revealed that photovoltaic has been the Division The focus of development; Wen Guoguang, deputy general manager of Fuli Electronics Factory, is full of confidence in photovoltaics, and said that the company is doing research and development of solar inverter power and is full of hope for the photovoltaic industry.
The advent of the photovoltaic industry has made major companies full of temptations and hopes, and they have to “give full attentionâ€. Kong Hao, an engineer at Chuang Magnetic Electronics Co., Ltd., said that for the future of environmental protection and renewable energy, the company is keeping a close eye on emerging markets and entering the solar field. Exploration work; Lv Xiaorong, assistant to general manager of Shenzhen Jingquanhua Electronics Co., Ltd., believes that the solar energy field belongs to a national supporting project and will make further investment.
(1) Magnetic components with good performance, high efficiency, and low price become the darlings of photovoltaic inverters.
Photovoltaic inverters are divided into large and small power. Larger technical requirements are higher, but domestic manufacturers have more medium and small power, and they can compete with foreign countries. High-powered inverters must have good stability and high frequency. High efficiency, high power density, high reliability and high intelligence will be the future direction of inverter development.
Specialized in the development, development and production of solar energy & wind power grid-connected inverters, solar & wind power off-grid inverters, intelligent controllers, street lamp controllers, Nanjing Guanya, the engineer of the technical department, Cui Hairui introduced in the photovoltaic industry The magnetic components used in the inverter are relatively large, including electronic transformers, reactors, inductors, filters, etc., but it is hoped that large inductance, high efficiency, low price, and amorphous components can be used; photovoltaics with independent intellectual property rights Wang Jianbin, an engineer of product development at Beijing Jingyi Green Power Systems Engineering Co., Ltd., an inverter and related product, points out that in a photovoltaic inverter, at least one differential mode inductor and one common mode inductor should be used, but based on Inverters have changed in various operating environments; Xie Xiaoyong, New Energy Engineering Department, Shenzhen Kstar Industrial Technology Development Co., Ltd. stated that currently the PV market is very active and domestic sales are getting better and better. Increased. High- and low-frequency electronic transformers, inductors (especially high-power), magnetic rings and other magnetic components are all needed, and the amount is large. At the same time, the requirements for the efficiency of electronic transformers are higher, and the certification requirements for products, materials, and components are also relatively high. High, generally used foreign products, such as amorphous materials are TDK, Hitachi, etc., mainly because of their good product performance, high quality, in line with the company's R & D production requirements, domestic products in the selection and process also has a certain gap, need to be from the whole On the analysis of product characteristics, and then choose which products, not all do not need to use domestic products; dedicated to solar energy, wind energy and other renewable energy power conversion products R & D, production and sales of Shanghai Zhengtai Power Systems Co., Ltd., the supplier development manager Tao Weijin said Due to the high requirements for photovoltaic inverters, high-performance, high-power density, high-flux products are needed, but the price is very expensive, especially for foreign products. Domestic products have problems such as performance and material, and the amount of magnetic components is large. , About 20%, domestic magnetic component manufacturers need to continuously improve their technical level. Guangdong Yishite Power Co., Ltd. is committed to the development, production and sales of new energy products such as UPS power supply and photovoltaic power generation. Liu Gong, a technical center engineer, said that a photovoltaic inverter will basically use 6 to 7 inductors. The use of different types of products in different locations requires selection based on the specific environment, model, and structure, which is mainly reflected in stability, temperature rise, etc., but the inverter precisely requires that the magnetic element performance be stable, the temperature change is not significant, and the efficiency higher.
(2) The photovoltaic industry has strongly promoted the development of the magnetic component industry and allowed it to continuously improve.
According to reports, Hengdian East Magnetic achieved revenue of 30.01 billion yuan last year, an increase of 122.22%. The operating profit was 423 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 133.62%. In the field of solar inverters and LEDs, the soft magnetic margin was 31.35%, which was a year-on-year increase of 2.51 percentage points. Solar business expanded rapidly, achieving revenue of 973 million yuan and gross profit rate of 17.80%. It is reported that the expansion of solar project capacity will continue to be an important driving force for its revenue growth. According to analysts from the securities industry, North Mine Magnetic Materials and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials are affected by new energy industries such as photovoltaics. The industry outlook is very attractive. It has long-term investment value, and new energy industries such as photovoltaics will further promote the development of magnetic component manufacturers. As time passes, components will also be continuously improved to some extent.
The main components of the PV inverter include power frequency transformers, high frequency transformers, drive transformers, filter inductors, energy storage inductors, and forward transformers. The electronic transformer (power frequency, high frequency) plays the role of insulation and power conversion in the main circuit of the inverter. The driving electronic transformer mainly performs signal conversion and drives switching devices. The forward electronic transformer is used for energy storage and conversion and insulation (minus Small loss, reduced volume, weight and manufacturing costs, the general carrier frequency is about 20kHz). General cores use (low frequency) cold-rolled oriented silicon steel, iron-based amorphous alloy (low frequency: gold coiled or lapped, high frequency: toroidal and CD type) or MnZn soft ferrite (high frequency). However, the use of low-frequency amorphous high efficiency, low cost, small volume and weight, iron loss is only 1/5 of the cold rolled silicon steel laminated core, the overall efficiency of up to 95%, it is understood that the foreign power frequency transformer about For 50% of the total weight of the inverter, the total efficiency of the inverter is approximately 90%. The use of high-frequency amorphous, soft magnetic ferrite, the working flux density and high efficiency, volume, weight, total loss, magnetostriction coefficient, by the temperature change is small, resulting in low electromagnetic interference characteristics .
The numerous advantages of amorphous alloy transformers have played an important role in the rise of the photovoltaic industry. It is reported that the use of amorphous alloy transformers, compared with the widely used S11-type transformers, its no-load loss energy-saving rate of more than 70%, compared to nearly 40% energy saving, but also reduced than the traditional silicon steel pressure loss no-load loss of about 80% . At the same time, it can effectively ease the tension in electricity consumption, greatly reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, and effectively reduce the pollution of the environment. Reported that in 2009 the market size of about 1.7 billion, is expected to reach 160 billion yuan in the next decade, the current annual increase in the distribution transformer amorphous transformer accounted for about 5%, has broad prospects.
The filter inductor is used in the inverter to eliminate high-order harmonics in DC and AC. The iron powder core is used in DC, the oriented silicon steel and amorphous alloy are used in AC, and the energy storage inductor stores energy in the boost part of the inverter. And change role (can use iron powder core, oriented silicon steel and amorphous alloy).
Yan Chong, senior engineer and engineering engineer of Hengdian East Magnetic Soft Magnetic Division, believes that 90% of photovoltaics are currently connected to the grid. He said that currently, Dongmin currently supplies magnetic materials for solar inverters, including amorphous and soft magnetic products. The output is about 20%. With the development of the photovoltaic industry, the domestic magnetic material industry has gradually grown. Although East Magnetics is also developing and producing photovoltaic products, the sales volume of magnetic materials is not very much related to it. Currently, the source of customers is still before and the production output is maintained. Also gradually showing growth. In recent years, the photovoltaic industry has been affected by price declines and European policies. It is still not optimistic. He expects that it will achieve better development in China in the coming years.
Chen Guilin, general manager of Shenzhen Jinshunyi Electronics Co., Ltd., said that the company has been paying attention to the development of the photovoltaic industry and entered the field last year. However, the current volume is not large, may be due to the immature market, etc., and customers have higher requirements for inductor technology, such as Reliability, and that the price is too expensive, especially amorphous, Jin Shunyi is currently developing a kind of amorphous products that can replace the higher prices, will soon be used, but also for reactor products dedicated to photovoltaic inverter, hope Can open the photovoltaic market as soon as possible.
Magnetic components still play a role in reliability in the photovoltaic industry
The sustainable development of China's photovoltaic industry will effectively drive the magnetic component industry. In recent years, magnetic components have gradually evolved into light, thin, and small directions, and at the same time, they have also undergone certain changes in the process. In particular, electronic transformers have been developed in the direction of high frequency, low loss, light weight, and small size. Soft magnetic core materials with high saturation magnetic susceptibility, high initial magnetic permeability, and low high frequency loss will be boosters for the development of various components. As we all know, the core material of electronic transformers is best to have high saturation magnetic induction, low high frequency loss, high initial permeability, high Curie degree and good stability (environment), stress insensitive, high squareness ratio Br/Bs Or low Br (pulse transformer) and so on. At present, the characteristics of amorphous nanocrystalline alloy materials are recognized, it is understood that it can improve product performance, quality and promote miniaturization, becoming the most favored role of soft magnetic core materials.
At present, due to the high requirements for magnetic components of photovoltaic inverters, especially high-power, high-efficiency, high-performance, high-power density, high-flux, low-cost and stable components that have little effect on heating, China At present, the use of magnetic components in photovoltaic inverters still has problems with materials, processes, properties, and quality. However, major manufacturers in China began to try to research and develop products that meet the requirements of photovoltaic inverters, such as finding alternative amorphous alloy materials that are expensive, and constantly adapting to changes in photovoltaic products. In the future, photovoltaic inverters will not only be used in power stations, but consumer electronics such as notebooks and mobile phones may also be "played," and the magnetic component industry will gain better opportunities for development.
Even so, the major manufacturers still need to precipitate and stabilize their influence in the industry. They should be down-to-earth, not to blame, not to be quick-motivated, and to improve their comprehensive level in order to best realize their own corporate value and social value. At the same time, we should also strengthen the field of expertise and pay attention to the development of new industries such as photovoltaics. As the industry analysts point out, accurately and objectively grasp the development trend of the photovoltaic industry, identify the entry point for the industry, and focus on assault will become the face of the magnetic component companies. The theme of the right.
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