Affected by the US financial crisis, market research institutions have adjusted their expectations for the prospects of the semiconductor industry.
The semiconductor equipment market is changing. After SEMI released its optimistic 2009 capital expenditure forecast in August, it lowered its market expectations and said that many chip makers are in a state of panic. In the August report, SEMI predicted a 20% reduction in fab equipment spending in 2008, and a 20% rebound in 2009. There is no change in the forecast for 2008. But for 2009, SEMI analyst Christian Gregor Dieseldorff said it expects semiconductor capital spending to increase between -10% and 5%. Many chipmakers are reassessing their capital expenditure plans because of the accumulation of inventory in the storage market and the impact of Wall Street's crisis. It's like a panic. Dieseldorff commented.
Previously, NeedhamCo also lowered its forecast for global semiconductor capital expenditures in 2009, saying that spending will fall by 16.1% next year. The company's previous forecast was a 2.5% reduction. At present, the mood of equipment vendors is very complicated. Memory manufacturing equipment spending is decreasing, but logic continues to grow. Brian Trafas, KLA-Tencor Chief Marketing Officer, said. Another problem is that the foundry now spends very little and even stops spending. Trafas said the foundry is implementing strategic purchases rather than capacity purchases.
ICInsights recently lowered its forecast for semiconductor growth in 2008. It expects full-year sales to grow only 4% to $244.3 billion, lower than the previous 7% growth rate and $250.3 billion in sales forecast.
ICInsights pointed out that chip shipments are still growing strongly in 2008, and are forecast to grow by 8% for the full year, but the average ASP (ASP) will be reduced by 4%, which is why the agency lowered its annual market size. Analysts said that the logic chip market is in the process of destocking. In addition, the Flash market is facing a price collapse. However, ICInsights said that in the long run, due to the stabilization of chip prices, the semiconductor market is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 10.6% from 2007 to 2012. As manufacturers reduce their capital expenditures, they will help increase capacity utilization. This will give ASP a chance to stabilize or even rise in the future. ICInsights predicts that semiconductor market capital expenditures will decline by 18% in 2008.
In addition, iSuppli also announced that it will reduce the recent DRAM market rating from neutral to negative, and said that unless the memory manufacturers make significant production cuts, the rating will not respond in the short term. At present, in addition to Samsung Electronics, other DRAM manufacturers are losing money. The overall economic downturn has hit DRAM demand, and manufacturers have fallen into oversupply. Together with the financial industry, which is a major PC customer, it is heading for a recession, leading to an unclear prospect of memory demand and a rise in inventory. The only way for DRAM makers to temporarily mitigate losses is to stop shipping, which is expected to occur in general from October. At present, manufacturers such as Elpida and Powerchip have announced production reductions.
According to iSuppli analyst NamKim, the market is expected to recover as the industry clears its inventory. However, it is still unknown when the current economic downturn can be turned over. According to iSuppli, spot prices of 512Mb and 1GB DDR2 chips fell 16% and 27% respectively in August.
In addition, Gartner announced in early September that it will adjust its 2008 global semiconductor sales forecast. The 2008 forecast was revised down from $287 billion to $285 billion, and the annual growth rate was also lowered from 4.6% to 4.2%.
Credit Suisse recently said at an investor forum in Taipei that the global semiconductor industry will remain weak until the first quarter of 2009, due to factors such as the global financial crisis and high customer inventory levels. There will be a rebound in the second quarter.
The investment bank said that semiconductor manufacturers are expected to continue to reduce capital expenditures in 2009 after reducing their capital expenditures by 20% to 30% in 2007 due to reduced demand.
In addition, due to the short-term factors such as the destocking of the semiconductor market since 2006 and the price wars in the processor and memory markets, the operating profit margin of the semiconductor market has declined in recent years, and the profits of manufacturers are shrinking, which will force the semiconductor industry. Start reforming.
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