Power Battery Reshuffling: Stronger, Stronger, Quality, and Smart

Recently, the Ningde Era, a major supplier of power battery systems, released its prospectus for the first time, sparking significant attention within the industry. This marks one of the largest IPOs among non-state-owned enterprises in China. Not only does it bring fresh momentum to the country's new energy vehicle sector, but it also has the potential to reshape the global power battery landscape.

Power Battery Reshuffling: Stronger, Smarter, and More Efficient

Industry experts believe that as the core component of electric vehicles, the development of power batteries and new energy cars are closely linked. Chinese automakers have seized the opportunity in the new energy industry to overtake traditional competitors and take the lead in battery technology. However, the power battery market is currently flooded with inefficient and outdated production capacity due to high demand and subsidies. As government support for new energy vehicles declines, cost pressures are increasingly shifting toward battery manufacturers. Once subsidies are completely phased out, companies lacking advanced technologies may struggle to survive.

Ningde Era vs BYD: Reaching the 100 Billion Yuan Milestone

Ningde Era is now in a quiet phase before its IPO. According to its prospectus, the company's revenue from power battery systems was 715 million yuan in 2014, rising to 4.98 billion yuan in 2015, 13.98 billion yuan in 2016, and 5.34 billion yuan in the first half of 2017. These figures accounted for 94.17%, 87.98%, 95.55%, and 87.14% of the company’s main business income, respectively. Market estimates suggest that the IPO price could be around RMB 60 per share, with the company’s valuation surpassing RMB 130 billion. Meanwhile, BYD’s current market value is approximately RMB 190 billion. Both companies are leading players in China’s power battery market, having entered the 100 billion yuan valuation club after the rise of electric vehicles.

According to data from the agency, Ningde Era ranked among the top three globally in 2016 and was second in China. In the first half of 2017, it surpassed BYD in sales, securing the top spot in China and second globally.

Recently, Guo Weinan, project manager at BYD’s Power Battery Factory, outlined future plans for the company’s power battery strategy, emphasizing innovation in raw materials and safety. He stated, “We will continue to focus on both lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium battery technologies. In terms of battery module development, we aim to standardize designs while achieving lightweight solutions. We will conduct extensive work to ensure system safety and improve overall reliability.”

Industry insiders believe that as subsidies for new energy vehicles decline, cost pressure is shifting to power battery manufacturers. With high battery costs, electric vehicles may not be able to compete with traditional vehicles if they rely too heavily on policy support. If subsidies are removed, it will be a major test for companies. Therefore, all major battery manufacturers worldwide are focusing on reducing battery costs.

According to recent data, the current domestic power battery price is around 1.6 yuan per Wh. To reach oil-level pricing, the price must drop to about 1 yuan per Wh. In early 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Action Plan for Promoting the Development of Automotive Power Battery Industry," setting a target to reduce battery costs to 1 yuan per Wh by 2020.

Intense Market Competition: Quality and Intelligence Are Key

Industry sources point out that the power battery industry currently faces challenges between low-end and high-end production capacities. A quality revolution is urgently needed to address these issues from the ground up.

Lithium-ion batteries, as a green energy product, are gradually replacing traditional lead-acid batteries. Compared to traditional batteries, lithium-ion batteries offer higher energy density, higher operating voltage, lighter weight, smaller size, lower self-discharge, no memory effect, longer cycle life, and faster charging. Additionally, they do not contain harmful heavy metals like lead or cadmium, making them environmentally friendly. In recent years, lithium-ion batteries have been widely used in consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems. Some agencies predict that global demand for lithium batteries in electric vehicles will exceed 340 GWh by 2022—seven times that of 2016.

Industry analysts predict that competition among leading power battery companies will intensify in 2018. Rising raw material prices could increase cost pressures on manufacturers, potentially leading to more price wars. Equipment suppliers also face challenges such as small market sizes, unstable equipment performance, and long payback periods. Experts believe that "quality creation" will become the central theme of the lithium battery industry’s development in the coming years.

As a high-value-added manufacturing sector with long-term growth, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes intelligent battery manufacturing. On October 16, 2017, the ministry announced the 2017 Smart Manufacturing Pilot Demonstration Projects, including several power battery and lithium titanate battery digitization workshops from companies like Northern Ao Titanium, Fuengeng Technology, Miaosheng Power, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Yinlong New Energy, BAK Battery, and Qinghai Times New Energy. Industry insiders note that with increasing demand for high-performance, high-quality, and cost-effective power batteries, improving smart manufacturing levels has become crucial for China’s battery industry.

Fuel Truck Sales Ban Trends: Power Batteries Face New Opportunities

Industry experts believe that with the gradual implementation of national policies, improvements in lithium battery production technology, cost reductions, increased adoption of new energy vehicles, and better infrastructure, demand for electric vehicles is expected to grow significantly over the next three years.

Under the dual drive of "market and policy," the "double integration" policy, and the planned ban on fuel truck sales, along with continuous improvements in charging infrastructure and power resources, the energy density of power batteries is increasing, and costs are decreasing. These factors will greatly enhance the competitiveness of the battery industry chain.

For example, in the lithium battery materials field, with the growth of new energy vehicles and the energy storage market, the lithium battery recycling and material processing sectors have huge market potential. Currently, the battery recycling industry is still in its early stages, and large-scale battery returns have not yet begun. However, as the power battery market expands, the number of retired batteries will grow rapidly. The rapid market expansion from 2014 to 2015 is expected to lead to a significant increase in battery returns after 2018, driving the development of the battery recycling industry.

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