Orient Securities: Optoelectronic Industry Recalls LED or Welcomes New Opportunities
Investment perspective: From the stock price point of view this week, optoelectronics industry, touch and optical related adjustments are relatively large, the panel industry performance is relatively stable, LED lighting industry was affected by the three security incidents, performance in general. Industry fundamentals: Mobile phones and Pad related are still hot, and they are performing well. It is expected that as more smart phone manufacturers join the ranks of Pad, mobile phones and NB manufacturers will enter into a competitive clash. With the breakthrough of LTPS large-size process technology, Pad may Surpassed expectations; panel recovery was lower than expected due to economic weakness in Europe and the United States and policy uncertainties, especially TV panels, but Pad panels performed well; LED lighting industry with the backlight cyclical recovery and rapid penetration of overseas lighting market, industry Gradually restored. Peripheral attention is focused on the situation in the DPRK and Korea. As South Korea is a major producer of panels, MLCCs, and DRAMs, as the situation in the Republic of Korea heats up, uncertainties in South Koreaâ€™s related industries increase, and in order to reduce the impact, Koreaâ€™s purchases will be shifted. Therefore, the panel, MLCC, In the DRAM and other industries, Taiwan, Japan and mainland China will welcome opportunities. The panel makers will benefit from the Chinese manufacturers.
First, focus on the localization of hot product areas to accelerate the acceleration of manufacturers' Pad panels, optical films, and backlight devices. Second, attention is paid to the LED lighting industry, which is bottoming out; the third is the opportunity for the industry leader to pull back.
This week, A-share LED industry stocks, Keheng shares, Yushun Electronics, Nanda Optoelectronics, Sida, Hisense Electric home rose in the top 5; Qinshang Optoelectronics, Leybold Gaoke, Changying Precision, ultrasound electronics, Jinfu new materials Among the top five in terms of decline, Yushun Electronics, Keheng, Oufeiguang, Dongshan Precision, and Qinshang Photoelectricity had the top 5 risk indicators: quarterly report risk, price drop risk, and policy risk.
CICC: TV panel prices stabilized in April LED continued to pick up
Investment suggestion This week, the electronic sector rose by 4.3%, among which the security and Samsung industrial chain performed outstandingly. Dahua announced the 2012 annual report, net profit growth rate of 84%, one-quarter earnings growth is expected to 80-120%, exceeding market expectations, this week, an increase of 8.2%, driven by leading, security plate rose 5.7% this week. As we had previously expected, Samsung's share price is facing downward pressure after the release of the Samsung Galaxy S4, but China's Samsung supply chain is a relatively strong recent stock.
Among them, Goerre, Desai Battery, and Changying Precision rose 7.4%, 13.0%, and 2.2% respectively (Oxford released an annual report this week, and its net profit growth rate was 57%, in line with market expectations). Touch screen populations were due to supply and demand in the first half of the year. The relationship was sound. The stock price risk was small before the end of April. It remained outstanding this week. The gains of O.W. and O.C. were up 10.5% and 6.1% respectively. In addition, the LED sector gained 3.8%, led gains in shares of Jufei, Qinshang Optoelectronics and Ruifeng Optoelectronics rose 10.7%, 10.0% and 6.2% respectively. It is recommended that investors firmly hold Samsung's supply chain, touch screen population, and scarce parts, such as: Goer acoustics, Crystal Optoelectronics.
Risk-sensitive touch screen: Oversupply in the second half of 2013, sales of touch-screen notebooks were much lower than expected. Samsung Supply Chain: S4 sales are not as expected.
Dongguan Securities: focus on smart terminal industry chain and LED
Investment Strategy: Due to the decrease in the number of working days, Apple's adjustment of orders impacted, and Taiwan Plant's revenue fell in February. However, judging from the operation of the domestic electronics industry, the economy is clearly better than last year, and the upcoming quarterly report is worth looking forward to. The end-market is not in the off-season, and the platform conversion has driven hardware upgrades. In the second quarter, the electronics industry is expected to enter a new round of economic cycle driven by the inventory of smart terminals. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the profit realized by the scale of January-February was 23.5 billion yuan, an increase of 89% over the same period of last year. The new profit was 11.1 billion yuan, accounting for 10.7% of all new profits, and the growth of enterprises above the designated size increased by 1.8 percentage points. . The main reasons for the increase in profit were the low base of the same period, and the relatively rapid growth in the production and sales of electronic products such as flat panel displays, tablet computers, and mobile communications equipment. After the holiday season, the market performance has already fulfilled the upward trend of the industry's economic outlook. In the short term, it will face certain valuation pressures. The trend of individual stocks will be divided. It is recommended to pay attention to the smart terminal industry chain and LED recovery.
Semiconductors: In North America, the BB value of semiconductor equipment in North America fell to 1.10 in February, but for the second consecutive month, it is expected to show an upward trend.
Components: In the January-February of 2013, the output value of the electronic device industry was 124.7 billion yuan, and the output value of the electronic component and module industry was 146.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.19% and 13.78%, showing a recovery trend.
Panel: In February, the off-season effect showed, and global TFT supplier revenue was 6.598 billion U.S. dollars, down 2% year-on-year and 6% lower than the previous quarter. Taking into account the Spring Festival, China is the world's largest LCD TV and LCD monitor market, and the decline can be regarded as fluctuations in the normal range.
LED: The increase in penetration rate of lighting has driven the industry to pick up. From the indoor lighting point of view, the foreign market started. CREE and Philips respectively launched low-cost LED lighting products that replace 40W and 60W incandescent lamps. The market responded positively, which helped to accelerate the increase of LED lighting penetration rate and focused on Ruifeng Optoelectronics and Sunshine Lighting. Judging from outdoor lighting, government bidding exceeded expectations. According to statistics, the bidding for street lamps and tunnel lights in the first quarter of Guangdong Province has reached 76,000 sq.ft., exceeding the total amount of tenders for the entire year in 2012. Bidding for projects across the country is expected to start intensively in the second quarter, focusing on BDO Runda.
Everbright Securities: Reiterating Investment Alignment - Valuation of LED Industrial Chain
Sector View This week, the electronics industry fell 1.7%, outperforming the broader market by 3%. The touch screen and Google's industry chain performed well. Affected by the incidents of the optoelectronics media, the overall trend of the LED segment did not meet our expectations. In the U.S. market, the S&P gained 0.7%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Nasdaq outperformed the broader market by 0.8 points and 0.01 points respectively. The Taiwan Science and Technology Index rose 2.4%, outperforming the broader market by 0.8 points.
Since December of last year, we have confirmed that the high valuation of the industry will continue. Many companies have increased their valuations to nearly 30 times, and it is unlikely to significantly increase earnings forecasts in the short term. We recommend that: 1. The fundamentals turn right. Valuation of the LED segment, LED lighting is expected to enter the explosive growth period in the second half: 1) to encourage demand policies are intensive introduction; 2) manufacturers and channels to improve profitability, promotion of power to strengthen; 3) incandescent lamp out into the substantive stage; 4) The commercial payback period is reduced to two years. Recently, LED-related companies in the United States and Taiwan have shown signs of improvement. We expect that Chinese companies will also gradually improve. See the in-depth report "LED lighting startup in the second half of the year, leading companies benefit." The LED industry has recently experienced two possible upswings, but all have encountered adverse events and have affected market sentiment: a) March 5-6 rose, but met on March 7-8 and March 12 GEM slumped; b) March 25, but in the afternoon of the same day encountered the media disclosure of the financial problem on the photoelectric.
Investment advice With the weakening of bad mood, LED plate will usher in a wave of compensatory growth industry, and then ushered in a wave led the market.
Founder Securities: LED upstream investment slows down the trend of downstream intelligent solutions
Investment Highlights Overheated investment in early stage of LED lighting accelerating The domestic LED industry was overheated in the first two years. The number of orders for MOCVD equipment upstream of LED surged under the governmentâ€™s active encouragement of subsidies and optimism for the industryâ€™s prospects. Investment overheating directly brought Overcapacity in the industry and product price drop. A large number of LED companies emerged during the period, especially in the packaging and application sectors of the middle and lower reaches of the country. However, the rapid opening of the demand side did not create much food. Most companies face strong competition and pressure for survival. The industry accelerates mergers and acquisitions integration and survival of the fittest. In the future, leading enterprises will further strengthen their core competitiveness under the influence of economies of scale, technology, and market advantages, and their industry concentration will gradually increase.
Since last year, investment in the upper reaches has slowed down, and capacity utilization rate is still low.
The data shows that the number of newly added domestic MOCVD in the first three quarters of last year was only 93 units, and the investment in equipment was obviously slowed down. Sapphire investment projects have also been significantly reduced. The total investment in sapphire planning in 2011 accounted for 47% of the total planned investment in the industry, and by 2012 it was only slightly higher than 10%. Although the overcapacity caused by the previous period has eased, the average domestic MOCVD operating rate last year was less than 60%, and the capacity utilization rate was slightly higher than 30%. Many companies take measures to reduce the price of inventory also affected the chip market prices show a downward trend.
Downstream: directly benefit from the policy, intelligent program requirements increase.
In 2012, the general lighting market became the largest market for LED packaging in the world for the first time, which directly indicated that LED has entered the general lighting field to accelerate the pace. LED lighting application products are the most directly benefited from the policy-driven link, and will further reduce the cost difference between replacement and energy-saving lamps under the conditions of continuous decline in costs and prices. In recent years, many LED lighting companies have begun to incorporate concepts such as "intelligent lighting solutions" into LED lighting appliances. The most notable recent debut of Philips' "Hue Intelligent Lighting System" is to enable users to customize and control their own indoor lighting solutions.
The investment proposal focuses on the slowdown of upstream investment in the upstream and downstream industries of the industrial chain. The further digestion of the production capacity has improved the fundamentals. The leading manufacturers with scale advantages will further compete in the market and occupy an advantageous position in the market. In the LED lighting industry chain, we aim to find the leading companies with wide market base and product reputationâ€”Sanan Optoelectronics and Sunshine Lighting.
Bohai Securities - LED lighting industry starts soon
In the current period of LED lighting industry startup, we analyzed the performance and overall cost of LED lighting sources, and found that LED has the conditions for commercial application, and business requirements will be fully started in the second half of the year. Civilian demand will gradually be released in the next two years, and demand will show explosive growth. In the industrial chain, we are optimistic about the downstream applications of LEDs. According to this year's â€œSemiconductor Lighting Energy-saving Industry Planâ€, the government set a production target of 180 billion LED lighting applications in 2015. Compared to 2012 output of 39.2 billion yuan, this means that the next three years of downstream lighting application industry will achieve All have a rapid growth of 57%.
With regard to policy orientation, the incandescent lamp elimination roadmap released earlier stipulates that all incandescent lamps with a 60W or more are eliminated by 2015, and the outflow of incandescent lamps will open up the demand gap for the LED lighting market. In addition, in January, the Ministry of Finance also listed LED lighting products for the first time in the list of government procurement of energy-saving products. Government procurement continued to increase, further expanding market demand. Under this perspective, we believe that leading companies with strong technical strength and product scale advantages will be expected to benefit first, and continued acquisition of orders will help them achieve faster development than the industry.
Investment Strategy As far as the market trend in the next quarter is concerned, we believe the probability of a market decline is greater. At the policy level, the issuance of the No. 8 document of the China Banking Regulatory Commission has brought about a panic decline in the market, and the expected downward adjustment of bank shares will have a negative repression on the stock index. It is recommended to allocate high-cap stocks with medium or small caps, and focus on grasping the stable performance growth and the target of valuation advantages so as to strive for greater relative returns during the downtrend.
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