[Global Synthetic Reporter Li Zongze] According to the US “Wall Street Journal†reported on February 9th, if we say that Twitter has ushered in the opportunity to reverse business, it should be this time. However, investors should not expect too much. US President Trump sent messages of no more than 140 characters to over 24 million fans each day. This has actually made Twitter a personal communication platform. This is how much money you can't buy. BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield said that Trump's use of Twitter as a medium of communication with the outside world has actually become a huge marketing tool for Twitter. Greenfield raised the company's stock rating on the eve of Twitter’s earnings announcement on the 8th. Greenfield is one of the few analysts on Wall Street to buy the stock. He said that it is undeniable that Twitter has been involved in this global trend of thought. However, the recent announcement of Twitter's performance and the company's stock price decline clearly shows that public attention and profitability is clearly not the same thing. The company’s monthly active user growth continues to slow. According to US GAAP, Twitter is still losing money. The company’s top executives have continued to change. In October last year, they also said they would lay off 9%.
Analysts expect that Twitter’s fourth-quarter loss will be 15 cents per share, compared with a loss of 13 cents per share for the same period last year. The company's adjusted earnings per share, excluding stock compensation, is estimated at 12 cents, a decrease of 25% from the same period last year. Seasonal revenue is expected to increase by 4.2% to US$740 million, continuing the momentum of continued slowdown in the growth rate of each quarter since the company’s IPO. The cooling of advertising demand and the slowdown in user growth have seriously hampered the ability of Twitter to monetize user data. Like other social media companies, Twitter is counting on the video business to stimulate recovery, including real-time streaming of premium content such as the National Football League (NFL) games. But this is not easy.
There is reason to believe that Twitter may not get the proper benefits from the Trump effect. Moffett Nathanson analyst quoted comScore's data, said that in October Twitter's absolute visitors decreased by 7% year-on-year, in November reduced by 5%. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey last month found that most Americans said Trump’s continued tweets were not a good idea. Of course, the performance of Twitter may be boosted by the Trump effect and exceed expectations. Considering that Twitter's popularity is so low today, it will almost certainly be a temporary boost to its stock price. The rumors of acquisitions from time to time may cause the stock price to fluctuate drastically. But in fact, if Twitter cannot benefit significantly from phenomena like the Trump effect, it may not get boosted from any other incident.
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